The five biggest medical schemes — Discovery Health, Bonitas Medical Fund, Momentum, Medihelp and Bestmed — offer a range of hospital plans at varying prices for 2025, but financial advisers have warned that there are myriad pitfalls to watch out for when selecting an option.

These schemes have also implemented premium price hikes on plans ranging from 7.4% to 14.9% effective from 1 January.

Independent financial adviser Verona Pillay of ASI Financial Services highlighted trends such as a rising number of claims, increased medical costs and ageing memberships that have led to diminishing benefits. 

To manage costs, medical aid schemes have gradually hollowed out benefits. 

Pillay said five trends affecting members include:

• Higher co-payments: Many plans now require members to pay a portion of high-cost procedures, specialist consultations and diagnostic tests.

• Reduced day-to-day benefits: Out-of-hospital benefits such as GP visits and dental care have been cut in favour of hospital coverage.

• Network restrictions: Plans limit members to specific networks, reducing flexibility and increasing out-of-pocket expenses for out-of-network care.

• Benefit sub-limits: Hospital plan sub-limits for specific treatments, for example cancer care or prosthetics, are common.

• Higher premiums: Despite fewer benefits the premiums rise above inflation.

Pillay advised consumers to carefully consider their needs and the potential pitfalls of plans.

“Many plans have cut back out-of-hospital benefits such as GP visits, dental, optical and over-the-counter medication. The effect is that members are left paying for routine healthcare out of pocket, which reduces the perceived value of the plan,” she said.

The biggest pitfalls to watch out for when selecting a medical scheme are waiting periods, co-payments, benefit limits and exclusions and network restrictions.

“When deciding to pay a premium for a medical aid, consumers often overlook critical details that only become apparent when they face a health issue,” Pillay said.

Some schemes impose a general waiting period of three months when no claims are allowed except for prescribed minimum benefits (PMBs), while others may offer no cover for pre-existing conditions during the first year. 

Co-payments and benefit limits could also leave consumers exposed as schemes often cover only a portion of the cost for hospitalisation, specialist consultations or procedures.

“For hospital admissions co-payments may apply for certain procedures, for example scopes, MRIs and elective surgeries, while benefit sub-limits include restrictions on coverage for high-cost items like prosthetics, specialised surgery, or cancer treatment,” Pillay said. “The effect is that members face significant out-of-pocket expenses,” she said.

Consumers may also not be fully aware of plan-specific exclusions or network limitations for certain treatments and high-cost drugs.

“Plans often restrict members to specific hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies [network providers]. Using non-network providers results in reduced or no cover,” Pillay said.

“During emergencies or complex treatments, members may find their preferred or nearest providers are not covered, leading to delays, stress or unexpected costs.”

Before choosing, consumers should also review waiting periods and plan for alternative coverage during that time.

Another crucial aspect of medical aid cover consumers need to be aware of is the law regarding chronic conditions and prescribed minimum benefits, because schemes sometimes neglect their responsibilities to pay for these treatments and instead claim co-payments from members.

Under the Medical Schemes Act of 1998 all registered medical schemes must cover 271 medical conditions and 26 chronic conditions, known as the chronic disease list (CDL).

The list includes 26 common illnesses such as hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes (type one and two), asthma, epilepsy, hyperlipidaemia (high cholesterol), HIV/Aids and chronic renal failure.

“Whether you are on a hospital plan or a comprehensive plan, your scheme is legally required to cover the 26 CDL chronic conditions and the broader 271 PMBs,” Pillay said.

But if members choose a non-designated service provider they may face co-payments unless it’s an emergency.

“Treatment for chronic PMBs usually requires pre-authorisation and registration with the scheme’s chronic programme and members must adhere to the scheme’s protocols, such as using generic medications or following specific treatment plans,” Pillay said.

The Mail & Guardian explored the cheapest and most expensive hospital plans, as well as the cost of the top comprehensive cover, to find out where the pitfalls and value lie.

Here is a breakdown of what is offered by the country’s big five medical schemes.

Discovery Health

By far the country’s largest medical scheme with 2  788  242 members and beneficiaries, Discovery Health offers its cheapest hospital plan, Active Smart, at R1 350 a month for the principal member. This is one of the cheapest on the market, but there are red flags.

This plan, targeted at active young professionals (although anyone is free to join), provides access to a limited network of private hospitals and co-payments may apply for certain procedures.

There is an extensive list of exclusions. For example, it does not cover hospital admissions related to investigations, dentistry, benign skin growths and lesions, as well as back, neck, knee and shoulder surgery.

The scheme’s most expensive hospital plan, Classic Core, is R3 652 a month and offers greater freedom of choice and wider cover for surgeries without hospital network restrictions.

The oncology limit for Active Smart includes only prescribed minimum benefits, which means the latest advanced treatments may not be available. The limit for Classic Core is R250 000. If the treatment costs more, a co-payment of 20% kicks in.

Discovery Health’s top comprehensive plan costs R11  430 a month.

There are no overall annual limits.

Bonitas Medical Fund

The scheme’s cheapest hospital plan, BonEssential Select, costs R2 192 monthly. It provides access to private hospitals within a designated network and includes preventative care benefits such as flu vaccines and screenings. 

The Hospital Standard plan, at R3  252 a month, offers a more comprehensive hospital coverage without network restrictions.

On both plans oncology cover is unlimited for prescribed minimum benefits and there are co-payments of 20% to 30% for using a non-designated service provider.

On Hospital Standard there is an additional R168 100 per family for non-PMBs, with 20% co-payment once this has been reached.

BonComprehensive is the scheme’s top offering, priced at R11  321 a month.

There are no overall annual limits on any plans.

Momentum Medical Scheme

Momentum’s Ingwe plan, starting at just R589 a month for low-income earners, is the most affordable option among the top five schemes. But it is restricted to network providers and offers limited benefits.

The Evolve option is next-cheapest at R1  847 a month for the main member and offers some day-to-day benefits. There is no overall annual limit on these options.

Oncology is for PMBs only on the Ingwe plan while Evolve offers R200  000 per beneficiary a year at network oncologists, after which a 20% co-payment applies.

The scheme’s top plan is the Extender Option at R9  160 a month.

There is no overall annual hospital limit on any plans.

Medihelp Medical Scheme

Medihelp’s MedMove! — priced at R1 638 a month — is a basic hospital plan with no overall limits.

At the other end of the spectrum is MedVital, which costs R2  244 a month for the network option.

Oncology cover on Medmove! is unlimited but subject to treatment protocols, which means some treatment may be excluded and comes with a 25% co-payment for deviation from these and a 30% co-payment for using non-designated service providers. Cover for oncology is R250  000 per family on Medvital.

The scheme’s top plan is MedPlus at R14  184 a month.

There is no overall annual hospital limit.

Bestmed Medical Scheme

Bestmed’s Beat1 Network plan, at R2  111 a month, is a hospital-only plan with access to network providers. It includes maternity benefits and preventative care but imposes co-payments for out-of-network services.

The Beat4 plan, priced at R6  832 monthly, offers a combination of hospital and savings benefits with fewer restrictions.

Both plans pay 100% of the scheme tariff for oncology subject to treatment protocols at a designated service provider.

The scheme’s top comprehensive plan is Pace4, which costs R11  662.

There is no overall annual hospital limit on any plans.

According to the Council for Medical Schemes’s latest report for 2023 released in November, 71 medical schemes cover 14.7% of the country’s population, down from 16% in 2022.

The average age of the medical scheme population is 34 with almost 40% of beneficiaries living in Gauteng, underscoring the correlation between economic activity and medical scheme membership. Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal came in second and third, with 15% and 14%, respectively.

Total healthcare expenditure on benefits paid in 2023 increased to R239  billion, up 9.44% from 2022.

This comes after a tumultuous 2023-24 year marred by 329 days of load-shedding, municipal debt that ballooned to R74.4 billion and the posting of a R25.5 billion net loss, which was a just over R9 billion improvement from its R34.6 billion loss incurred in 2022-23.

These were some of the highlights of Eskom’s annual results announcement on Thursday for the financial year which runs from 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024.

The announcement was delayed because of the power utility’s probe into the “bulk generation” of illegal prepaid electricity tokens on its online vending system for prepaid meters, challenges regarding the establishment of the National Transmission Company of South Africa and the time it had taken to respond to reportable irregularities raised by external auditors, Eskom board chairperson Mteto Nyati said.

“Collusion is suspected between Eskom staff and illicit operators who breached controls within the prepaid ecosystem to facilitate the creation and sale of fraudulent prepaid electricity tokens,” Nyati said.

He said a forensic investigation is underway to determine the root causes that led to some 1.7 to 2 million customers not paying for electricity and that the team would make recommendations to deal with the problem.

Nyati said the power utility continues to face “systemic issues” affecting its financial, operational and sustainability performance.

These include an unreliable generation plant resulting in poor performance, its dysfunctional organisation culture, a weak balance sheet due to a high debt burden and tariffs that are not reflective of costs, as well as an outdated business model, prevalent crime, fraud and corruption and a lack of adherence to internal controls.  

He said the power utility had implemented interventions to remedy these challenges including the execution of its generation recovery plan, the appointment of strong leaders at all levels, improving revenue collection and driving cost-efficiency and enhanced governance and controls to eradicate crime, fraud and corruption.

Eskom chief executive Dan Marokane said 2023-24 was a year “characterised by intense and frequent load-shedding” with planned energy availability at its lowest, hovering around 55%.  

“We were not anywhere close to our aspirations in terms of emissions performance, safety performance, and not anywhere close to what we desire to do as a business. The increase in energy losses translates to losses associated with illegal connections and electricity through tokens. The net result of that, despite the 18.5% increase in tariffs for that year, is that we suffered a net loss before tax of R25.5 billion,” he said.  

Marokane said Eskom had received a qualified audit report stemming from the past two to three audits, which was “unacceptable”.

“It cannot be that we continue to have a repeat of this. And the board has asked us as management to turn the corner in as far as this aspect is concerned. As much as we have now stamped out load-shedding, we are going to turn the business upside down in terms of ensuring that we adhere to the controls that we have,” he said.

Marokane said the executive leadership had come up with an intervention plan to respond to the irregularities raised by auditors.

“This year was a painful year, but it was also a building year in terms of our path towards recovery. This is a year when the generation recovery plan was instituted. A lot of effort went into investing both in maintenance expenditure and in human resources — this was critically required to enable execution,” he said.

“It’s also here where we started seeing the government debt relay programme kicking into action. The certainty that arises from that gave us the ability to plan better and to do the deep maintenance that was required in the financial year.”

Eskom group chief financial officer Calib Cassim said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 26% to R43.4 billion.

He said as the company executed significantly increased planned maintenance to operationalise the generation recovery plan, load-shedding increased to 329 days from 280 days in the previous year, while diesel usage for open-cycle gas turbines to keep the lights on rose to R33.9 billion, and sales volumes declined 3% year-on-year. High levels of electricity theft led to an estimated R23 billion revenue loss. 

A loss after tax of R55 billion occurred mainly due to the derecognition of a deferred tax asset of R36.6 billion. This was triggered by the separation of the National Transmission Company South Africa on 31 March and it being deemed unlikely that the remaining business would generate sufficient taxable income within the next five years to fully use Eskom’s unused assessed tax losses.

He said Eskom still expects to return to profitability within the period of its current corporate plan ending March 2029.

“It is encouraging that we recorded a lower loss before tax, despite the momentous operational challenges we faced. I believe that we have reached a turning point and that the 2024 financial year will be remembered as the year in which we laid the foundation for future success,” Cassim said.

He said Eskom’s current debt securities and borrowings were R397 billion as at 31 October.

“We must reach a position where we can service our debt obligations without further government support, however, the national treasury has acknowledged that its debt relief and Eskom’s efficiency efforts alone are not enough to enable Eskom’s long-term financial sustainability — it must be supported by appropriate tariff increases, with measures to address affordability for vulnerable sectors, and a sustainable solution to the municipal arrear debt challenge, with the arrear debt owed to Eskom expected to reach R110 billion by March 2025,” Cassim said.

Marokane highlighted Eskom’s performance over the past eight months and the utility’s performance forecast for 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025, saying it could post a profit of more than R10 billion for the financial year. This is based on the current 12.7% tariff hike that was implemented earlier this year.

He said it was “a crucial step” that consumers migrate to paying “cost-reflective tariffs” to ensure Eskom’s financial sustainability and to foster a competitive future electricity supply industry that attracts investment and enables market players to operate and maintain their assets in a reliable state”.

“An inadequate tariff path will continue to constrain Eskom’s financial position, leading to insufficient investment to sustain and expand our infrastructure, thereby perpetuating past operational challenges. It may also necessitate further reliance on government support beyond March 2026,” he said.

He said Eskom’s focus remains on further reducing unplanned unavailability, to reach an energy availability factor level of 70% during March 2025 and an average energy availability factor of around 62% for the year, by implementing its generation recovery plan, which includes extensive planned maintenance.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said it was “worrying” that the release of the audited financial statements had been delayed as this undermined the social contract of transparency with the public.

He lamented the fact that Eskom had uncovered more than 1 million pre-paid customers who have not been paying for electricity.

“I guess that is a moving target. It’s just an illustration, perhaps, of the failures of controls. I think it’s important that Eskom must invest a lot of energy in addressing issues of cybersecurity, the undermining of the guardrails that protects Eskom, from those who want to attack it,” he said.

Ramokgopa congratulated Eskom’s leadership for reducing load-shedding and for achieving a more positive outlook for 2024-25 saying this illustrates “that indeed we’ve got the capacity and capability in the country to address what essentially is a challenge of existential proportions”.

“This work of Eskom contributes in large part to the realisation of the Energy Action Plan, which is a comprehensive articulation by the government on how we’re going to resolve and attend to the challenges presented by load-shedding,” Ramokgopa said.

He said the load-shedding experienced during the 2023-24 financial year had had a devastating impact on the economy and the financial performance of the power utility.

This comes after the department’s minister, Dean Macpherson, KwaZulu-Natal MEC Martin Meyer and eThekwini mayor Cyril Xaba signed a memorandum of understanding  in Durban last month committing to use public assets for the public good.

The release of the 24 properties for potential refurbishment and new uses for the land marks a shift for the department, which previously retained high-value properties that no longer served any purpose, many of which stand unused and dilapidated. In some cases, they have been hijacked.

The department has released a document listing the properties. Among them are the old police barracks Excelsior Court in Durban, the Venda Presidential House in Polokwane, the former home affairs building in Pretoria, Ramelna Court Flats in Bloemfontein and 104 Darling Street in Cape Town. 

The total municipal valuations of 16 of the listed properties amounts to just over R122.6 million, while eight of the properties do not have their municipal values included.

According to the department, members of the public and private entities have until 13 March next year “to make proposals on how these properties can be used to ensure that they contribute to the public good, help ignite job creation and add value to their communities”.  

The department will evaluate these to consider which are feasible before moving ahead with the next step, which could include granting long-term leases, entering into public-private partnerships or selling the properties.

Macpherson said the release of the list marked a “milestone” for the department.

“We will make good on our promise to invite private and public roleplayers on this scale to bring us proposals on how these properties can be utilised towards truly benefiting the people of South Africa, either through repurposing or redevelopment,” he said.

“This means that, where feasible, the state may partner with the private sector to ensure that properties contribute to economic growth and job creation. We believe these properties will attract significant investment and jobs through their redevelopment.

Macpherson said the decision signalled a shift from hanging on to properties, despite them serving no purpose.

“By working together with the municipality and the provincial government, we are charting a new course for how state-owned properties can be utilised to serve the people of South Africa.”

Depending on the success of the current request for proposals process, additional properties will be considered for release as part of the programme.

The eThekwini municipality and the KwaZulu-Natal department of public works and infrastructure are following similar processes of releasing unused properties they own for public and private sector proposals.
The tender documents can be accessed here.

Hajira Khalid, founder of Mac Plastics, a recycling company in Isithebe in the northern part of the province, has endured more than the triple beating of the Covid-19 pandemic, the July 2021 riots and the April 2022 floods.

Similarly Elaine Muthusamy, the founder of SA Metering Solutions, who was diagnosed with lupus and given six months to live, has defeated death and the trio of disasters that struck the province.

Khalid also endured the hijacking and shooting of her husband and her factory being burnt to the ground three times, in 2016, 2018 and 2019. Yet she has rebuilt the business, which is to relaunch with a state-of-the-art recycling plant, at new premises in March 2025.

Khalid’s story started in the Eastern Cape, where she and her husband ran seven general stores before he was hijacked and shot in 2001, leading to the couple moving to the UK. They returned to South Africa in 2006 and explored new business opportunities.

A friend of Khalid’s husband invited him to visit his injection-moulding company in Namibia, which was struggling to source recycled plastic for its production line to make chairs, basins and buckets.

“My husband asked me to research different plastics to see if we could supply Fatima Plastics, but in South Africa in 2006, plastic recycling hadn’t really taken off. It was on a very small scale,” Khalid said.

“There weren’t many people that could supply what we needed — about 34 tonnes a week, sometimes 68 tonnes, to send to Namibia.”

Khalid set up the business with 50 staff in rented premises in Isithebe and imported machinery from China. The enterprise started getting orders to supply recycled plastic to local companies.

“The next year, we purchased more machinery. And because we were expanding, the property we were on was too small. We approached [financial services provider] Ithala and took the premises from them. And then eventually, over the years, we built ourselves up and we had 200 staff,” she said.

“We were exporting and supplying locally and we were importing because the demand was so high. We ended up opening a plant in Saudi Arabia that is still going.

“While there, we picked up on a new technology — recycling reject diaper offcuts from the production line. We then put it through a separation system and each product is then recycled into different streams.”

The company later introduced the same line to South Africa.

“In 2016, we had the first unrest. They had an issue with the mayor; they wanted the mayor removed. We managed to put out the fire from the outside, although they had petrol-bombed us. It took us about two days … but we managed to save the warehouse and the production plant,” Khalid said.

In 2018, her business was again a victim of civil unrest and fire.

“We lost that whole premises, with all the stock and machinery. I had to let about 80 of my 120 staff go. And then when quite a lot of businesses got torched in 2019, that’s when we lost everything,” Khalid said.

With support from Trade and Investment KwaZulu-Natal, Khalid approached Ithala for financial assistance. The company, however, offered her a loan, which she declined because she would not be able to start repaying it until production was running.

“So, we started with having just our contracts in place for waste collection and we then found little recycling companies that were closing after Covid-19. We gave our work to them to service on their manufacturing lines and carried on supplying our customers. And from there is how we built up our business,” she said.

“We are currently exporting to Mozambique, Swaziland and India.”

Khalid recently acquired a R20 million state-of-the-art energy and water efficient recycling plant to produce hygiene and food-grade products that will be launched in March. She plans to open the new facility in a secure business park such as the Dube Trade Port

or Whetstone Business Park.

Muthusamy was diagnosed with lupus, an immune system disease, in 2007 but, despite a long battle with the severe illness — which she eventually overcame — she continued working.

She had moved to Cape Town in 2001, where she worked in administration for a plumbing company, and later co-owned a plumbing shop with her husband, launching her career in water-related businesses.

She joined water metering company Huile Africa in 2016 where she dealt with suppliers in China and handled invoicing and deliveries. But she lost her job when the business closed two years later.

In March 2019, she registered the Amanzimtoti-based SA Metering Solutions, leveraging her knowledge in the industry and relationships with the Chinese suppliers. She started the business at her desk in her lounge at home.

“I used that year to set up the company, because water meters must be certified by the NRCS [National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications] before you can sell. I received my first shipment from China in February 2020,” she said.

But then Covid-19 hit and business slowed.

“The entire world was in lockdown but I had faith that something was going to happen. And because it is water meters, business was continuing — the business did not come to a standstill. But it was slow,” she said.

Her husband quit his job in August 2020 and joined her to handle sales and marketing.

“In 2021, the week before the looting, we received a 40-foot container with stock, and I had it in temporary premises,” she said.

As the looters rampaged in July 2021, Muthusamy was “sitting at home and thinking, ‘My God, the walls were closing down on me again for the second time.”

The looters had initially stormed the premises and stolen some stock on the morning of 21 July but most of it was too heavy to move. But they came back at night and torched the premises.

“I was thinking about 2008, when my life took a turn for the worse and was thinking, ‘Not again!’ Everything was burnt to the ground that night, on 21 July at 11pm,” she said.

She visited the premises later that week.

“I looked at everything … all of my hard work, my sacrifices, had burned to the ground, and three days later, we had to still be careful walking, because underneath there was still fire. 

“I looked at it and I cried, because I know what it feels like to lose everything, and I was just building up my life,” she said.

“Someone who has defeated death has a different kind of inner power. Nothing is bigger than that. You can overcome anything else. 

“I prayed, and I said, ‘You know what? I don’t know what the reason is for this to happen but I know that there is a reason and there’s a bigger purpose,’” she recalled.

Muthusamy, who lost R3.5 million worth of stock in the arson attack, was selected on an East Coast Radio show for a R20 000 award to help her build up her business.

She contacted a handful of her customers who agreed to hold onto their orders until she could get new stock from her suppliers who undertook to send meters on three months’ credit.

“That was enough for me to trade out of my situation,” Muthusamy said.

She contacted the Small Enterprise Development Agency and the Small Enterprise Finance Agency, which gave her a loan and a grant.

She managed to get her business operational and started supplying distributors with bulk commercial and domestic meters in KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape, Eastern Cape Gauteng and the Free State.

But sourcing domestic meters and the white boxes that house them from local manufactures soon became difficult due to rising prices.

“I made a decision to go into manufacturing. We invested in moulds. It was cheaper for me to make my moulds in China, ship the completed product and assemble it here in our warehouse,” Muthusamy said.

She said an SA National Accreditation System (Sanas) approved laboratory has been testing her meters but this has driven up costs. Muthusamy recently decided to establish an inhouse Sanas-approved laboratory, which she is in the process of finalising, to take her business to the next stage.

“Once you have a Sanas-accredited laboratory, you are considered one of the big boys,” she said.

“SA Metering Solutions is only five years old … and currently I am at that stage where I am taking the final step to be on a level playing field with companies that have been in this industry for 40 to 50 years.”

But there are some global headwinds, not least the United States’ re-election of Donald Trump and his threats of import tariff hikes, the continued slow-down of China’s economy and the climate crisis.

So said Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim, who presented the bank’s forecast for the economy and Sub-Saharan Africa for 2025 at a media event in Johannesburg.

Ballim said the bank anticipated 2025 would be “ more promising than the stabilisation period of 2024”, during which there had been a “striking improvement” in the political climate since the 29 May elections which saw the formation of the government of national unity. State-owned enterprises had also improved.

“Over the past 10 years or so, there has been an overarching sense of decay regarding sentiment associated with South Africa’s political climate. The [political] rule may be considered ‘the everything’, an all-encompassing economic growth tonic, which reveals its credentials when the guardrails of society are collapsing,” he said.

Ballim said the path of the country’s GDP tends to follow a trajectory mirroring the political climate.

It was encouraging that there had been a surge in optimism after the establishment of the 10-party coalition government. President Cyril Ramaphosa and Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen had signalled an “almost unbridled will” to consolidate the GNU, Ballim added.

“It is natural there is going to be ideological conflict among the various parties, but we are in a far more evolved era than four years ago. Both in terms of key personnel and in execution machinery,” he said.  

He said the South African Communist Party and labour federation Cosatu had been unable to retard the president’s reform commitment.  

Ballim contrasted the current period with the “Ramaphoria” of 2018, when bond yields improved before relapsing to previous under-performance levels.

“This time it is different. Yields have improved and are holding steady,” he said.

Ballim added that the JSE had also re-rated in recent months, leading to elevated stock prices because of positive sentiment — although there has not been a measurable improvement in corporate earnings nor any discernible improvement in efficiency in the country.

Positive prospects for the country are being underpinned by the durability of the coalition government and its strong foundational principles that have so far managed friction, as well as its constructive cabinet and ministerial actions, he added.

Macro-economic tailwinds have included the stabilisation of energy supply and the early reform taking place at Transnet. They have also included fiscal stabilisation, inflation easing below the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range, interest rate cuts, accelerated real wage growth and the embrace of the private sector.

Ballim said the country could be on a journey to 3.5% growth if it continues on the current trajectory over the next five years.

“We believe the repair of the electricity infrastructure is the most significant stand-alone tonic that could buttress economic growth. Improved logistics over the next two years will be another leap [as well as several] other economic reforms, and if we are able to deal with crime, the 3.5% trend growth over a five year horizon becomes probable,” he said.

He said for every 1% increase in GDP, employment rises by nearly 0.7%, which is more than double the global average.

“At a steady state of 3% GDP growth, SA could generate approximately 350 000 formal sector jobs per annum. These 350 000 jobs would buoy the welfare of about 1.2 million near-dependents,” Ballim said.

“Over a five-year envelope sustained 3% GDP growth would lift the welfare of almost eight million South Africans primarily through the labour market. This excludes the additional welfare advances through fiscal expenditure, for example on municipal services, social spending, education and health.”

He added that the sub-Saraharan Africa region should muster real weighted GDP growth of about 4.5%, although bigger economies would underperform, while small and medium sized economies would primarily drive the expansion.

South Africa could achieve a maximum of 2% GDP growth , while Angola and Nigeria would straddle 3.5% to 4% growth.

Ballim said smaller economies would achieve astonishing levels of outperformance in regions, particularly in East Africa where countries were achieving growth of 4% to 6.99%.

But, he added, the climate crisis posed a major risk factor for the region, as well as global fragmentation and politics, supply chain issues and the slow-down in China’s economy.

KPMG South Africa has forecast economic growth of 1.5% for South Africa in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 in its latest economic update report.

“The inflation rate is expected to end 2024 well below target and remain there through 2025. Consequently, interest rates are set to continue to decline, which will subsequently provide breathing room for consumers and businesses alike,” the audit firm said.

“The unemployment rate is still a concern and is expected to decrease slightly from the current 33% over the same period.”

The positive sentiment after the general elections, the improved performance of electricity supply and a slowdown in inflation “underpinned the more optimistic view of the economy over the forecast period”, KPMG lead economist Frank Blackmore said.

In the first half of 2024, the economy grew by an average 0.2%, limited by elevated inflation and interest rates, which suppressed private consumption and business expenditure, augmented by ongoing interruptions in power supply in the first quarter of the year. 

GDP contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter on the back of a large contraction in agricultural production, while many other sectors grew only marginally as a result of logistics bottlenecks and weak demand abroad, reducing the growth forecast.

“The expectation, however, is for stronger economic growth over the final quarter of the year on the back of the improved macroeconomic environment,” Blackmore said.

KPMG expects this positive momentum to continue into 2025 and 2026 with GDP growth forecast to improve to an average of 1.7%  as experienced over the 10 years leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“However, this is still below what is required to make a meaningful impact on economic inclusion to absorb a significant proportion of the unemployed into the labour market,” Blackmore said.

“Consequently, unemployment is expected to still be elevated with only slight improvements over the forecast period due to the upwardly adjusted economic growth expectation.”

Inflation slowed to 2.8% in October 2024 from 5.3% at the start of the year, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. It ticked up only slightly to 2.9% in November.

“This reduction in the rate of inflation is the primary reason behind the central bank commencing its interest rate reduction cycle. The positive effect of a reduction in interest rates of households and businesses should lead to an increase in both consumption and investment spending,” Blackmore said.

“The largest contributors to the inflation rate remain housing and utilities (electricity and water) followed by certain food and non-alcoholic beverages and financial and insurance services. The monetary policy is expected to loosen further in 2025 as inflation remains below the target rate.”

The fourth edition of the Western Cape Gang Monitor, released by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, paints a sobering picture of the complexity of organised crime in the province.

It reflects a usurping of the government’s authority, with gangs controlling turf and leaders getting away with murder as state witnesses are killed or threatened into silence. 

Fuelling the violence are arms and ammunition that flows from smuggling, legal gun owners and dubious security firms to the gangs.

Unravelling these gangs and the fear they instil in business owners and residents, who pay protection money to them, is not easy because it requires rooting out systemic problems such as corruption in the South African Police Service and achieving better gun control, security analysts say.

The report highlights the gunning down on 3  November of Mark Lifman, a prominent figure in Cape Town’s underworld, and includes interviews with current and former gang members, civil society figures and members of the criminal justice system.

Lifman was a dominant force in Cape Town’s extortion economy, particularly in the nightclub security sector. He ascended to prominence in the 2010s through his involvement in the nightclub scene, which he controlled with Jerome “Donkie” Booysen of the Sexy Boys and Nafiz Modack.

Gang rivalries turned violent in 2017, sparking competition for dominance in the lucrative protection rackets before the rivals settled into co-existence.

But Lifman’s death has raised fears of renewed violence in the decades-long turf war, notes the report, which depicts gang control as a spiderweb of decentralised authorities rather than a top-down hierarchy. 

The leader may be dead, but Lifman’s network and other gangsters expect his protection business to continue.

“It’s business as usual. Why would it change? Because they killed one of the bosses? No way! We got the necessary firepower to get the job done,” said a member of the Sexy Boys interviewed for the report.

Business owners have also predicted they must keep paying. One said he had factored in extortion as “an inevitable operating expense, a payment of around R1  500 to R2  000 per establishment per month”.

“Stopping payments is unthinkable. The safety of our staff and patrons is at stake,” he said.

What allows rackets to flourish is ineffective and corrupt policing.

“Police inefficiency means business owners see protection rackets as the lesser of two evils,” another respondent noted.

A parallel economy 

A significant finding of the report is how organised extortion syndicates have extended their influence into the provision of basic services in poor neighbourhoods.

Yanga “Bara” Nyalara, an extortionist in Khayelitsha, is a case in point. His operation, as described in police affidavits, is a self-reinforcing cycle of violence and control. Nyalara operated a quasi-police station out of a container at Site C taxi rank in Khayelitsha.

“The choice of location was strategic — as a taxi owner and association member, Nyalara could leverage existing transport industry networks while maintaining a visible presence in community life. From this base, he allegedly encouraged community members to report crimes such as robberies and assaults directly to him, offering a resolution for a fee through his criminal network,” the report noted.

“He let his own runners rob people and break into houses, then played the Robin Hood figure to gain popularity by dealing with these so-called offenders.”

Nyalara symbolises a trend in the province where extortion gangs such as the Bara, the George and the Piri are de facto authorities in townships such as Khayelitsha.

They proffer a semblance of order through violence and coercion, exploiting the vacuum the state has left in its failure to deliver security and basic services.

Thando Pimpi, councillor for Ward  93 in Khayelitsha, noted that extortionists charge contractors fees of R50  000 to work in his ward, crippling government service delivery.

 “We can’t do anything,” he said.

Protection fees from schools have also been demanded.

“Extortionists have been seen parked outside schools as a form of intimidation or as a sign to other extortionists that the school falls within their turf. The schools in question are hesitant to report these incidents or speak out due to the threat of violence, and there has been little to no public coverage of this developing problem,” the report noted.

“The scope of these groups’ operations reveals their ambition to become de facto governing authorities … these gangs now demand ‘protection fees’ from almost every commercial enterprise … This extensive system of taxation mirrors legitimate governance structures, creating a parallel economy that has penetrated government service delivery.”

Violent arsenal

The report notes the ease of acquiring arms and ammunition.

Data from the City of Cape Town’s ShotSpotter system showed that more than 7 400 rounds were fired in four Cape Flats suburbs in the first eight months of 2024.

A senior police investigator observed: “Five years ago, we’d pick up five or six bullet casings at a crime scene. Now, it’s 30 to 60, and they’re brand new.”

Gangs acquire ammunition through multiple channels, including cross-border smuggling, corrupt police and robberies, while legal loopholes in the firearms licensing system aids supply.

Licensed gun owners, including hunters and private security firms, can exploit lax oversight mechanisms, allowing them to stockpile ammunition and sell it. For example, the Firearms Control Act allows gun owners to buy 200 rounds of ammunition per firearm but because there is no centralised database this can be circumvented by buying from multiple dealers.

Cocaine and abalone

The illegal abalone trade, a historic cornerstone of the organised crime economy in the province, now intersects with drug smuggling.

Gangs such as the Terrible Josters — whose leader Peter Jaggers was murdered this year over a botched R1  billion cocaine deal — have used abalone as a bartering commodity, trading it for precursor chemicals used in methamphetamine production.

But the report indicates these networks now play a more direct role in cocaine trafficking involving “boat-to-boat exchanges at sea”.

By embedding themselves in transnational drug trafficking networks, the gangs are poised to escalate their violence and power, which will have devastating consequences for coastal communities, the report warned.

Confronting the gangs

The report noted that restoring state legitimacy is a critical step to tackle this crisis. 

It also recommends strengthening oversight of ammunition sales, bolstering witness protection programmes and addressing systemic corruption in the police service.

Institute for Security Studies (ISS) crime hub manager Lizette Lancaster said there were no quick fixes to dismantling any organised crime network.

“One needs to fully understand how these networks operate and map them to understand who is involved, and that is very difficult when victims are too scared to speak up due to fear of retaliation. But it can be done through sustained efforts,” she said.

“It’s about increasing the pressure and making sure there are very safe reporting lines for victims. Victims need to feel they are protected against organised crime figures, and therefore corruption within the criminal justice system and within law enforcement needs to be eradicated,” she said. 

“There need to be safe spaces where cases can be dealt with without fear that the task teams or anti-corruption units are infiltrated, and that means a lot of integrity testing within the police and law enforcement agencies.”

A recent ISS report, titled Targeting Firearm Crime Will Make South Africa Safer, noted how the police service should use its crime administration system data to map station areas where gun crime is highest.

“The initial focus should be on provinces with the highest levels of firearm crime: Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga. This information should be used to support implementation of a focused strategy to reduce firearm crime,” the report noted.

Data collection and the recording, mapping and analysis of gun-related crimes must be improved. Based on this data, dedicated firearm crime reduction units with intelligence support should be established to focus on areas where gun violence is concentrated.

“Police measures to reduce firearm crime must be aligned with efforts to reduce the overall problem of firearm proliferation in South Africa, including more rigorous implementation of the Firearms Control Act and digitisation, anti-corruption and measures to strengthen the Central Firearms Registry,” according to the report.

This is according to Vuyiswa Radebe, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife’s executive manager for biodiversity conservation, who was giving an update on the estimated 35 elephants that escaped from KwaZulu-Natal’s Mawana Game Reserve (MGR) into the Mawana and Ekudubekeni areas.

Ezemvelo had considered relocating the elephants but other Southern African Development Community countries had the same problem of limited land in protected areas.

“We discovered that nobody wants elephants in the country, and nobody wanted elephants outside of our country,” she said.

There are an estimated 30 000 elephants in South Africa on private and state game reserves, including Kruger National Park, which far exceeds the ecological carrying capacity, Radebe said.

“It is clear that we have a crisis in our hands as a country, not just in the province. Our elephant populations have reached carrying capacity in most conservation areas, and something needs to be done,” she said.

“We are looking at half of these numbers as what should ideally be sustainable. We are way over the limit.”

The free-roaming elephants in the Mawana and Ekudubekeni areas have caused the death of one person, the destruction of crops and children being chased by elephants.

Radebe said the problem stemmed from the growing elephant population in the reserve. 

Ezemvelo granted permits to the private reserve owned by the Van der Walt family for the introduction of 10 elephants in 2003 and five more in 2004. 

Radebe said the reserve’s fences had deteriorated, leading to frequent elephant escapes. She added that “the animals roam outside because there is more food and water in the surrounding areas than inside the reserve”. 

This has led to dangerous encounters between humans and elephants. Ezemvelo has paid out R12 million in compensation over the past 10 years following cases of human/wildlife conflict in the province.

She recounted several incidents of human/wildlife conflict in the Mawana and Ekudubekeni areas, including how, in 2020, a man was trampled to death while chasing elephants back into the reserve.

“We have been receiving incidents of animals escaping, animals being seen in the communities causing damage, threatening people’s lives,” Radebe said. “There was a point where community members called us and said the kids, to deter the elephant from attack, had to throw a backpack and run for their lives.”.

She said an incident in March this year, when a boy herding cattle in March 2024 had survived an attack, had been “a wake-up call”.

“We realised that something ought to be done, and it was something that needed to be done at high speed,” Radebe said. 

Ezemvelo was preparing to issue a compliance notice regarding the roaming elephants to the MGR in April this year, when the reserve sent an email advising that the elephants did not belong to it. 

On 29 August a farm owner near Vryheid complained to Ezemvelo that elephants had entered his property. A helicopter was dispatched to conduct a census, which found there were nine animals on the farm.

Radebe said Ezemvelo had made use of a standing permit which allowed them to kill the nine elephants because they posed a potential threat to property and human life, which had caused an outcry from conservationists.

Solutions proposed by conservation organisations such as Elephants Alive, Humane Society International (HSI), LionsExpose and Project Rhino were presented at a meeting with local communities, the Van der Walt family and Ezemvelo on 19 November. 

The HSI proposed that a helicopter be used to push elephants into an emergency holding area that should be fenced in three months; that the elephants be collared; that a reaction unit be equipped with tools such as drones; and that the elephants’ population growth be controlled with the use of contraception.

Elephants Alive said it would work with the HSI to train elephant shepherds and that it had had discussions with community members to identify an area in which to push the elephants.

The Van der Walt family suggested that the elephants be herded into the reserve’s boundaries and that they be collared and monitored within a geofenced area in the centre of the game reserve. 

A geofence is a virtual boundary defined by radio frequency or GPS that triggers a response when something enters or leaves the area.

The family said they would repair the physical fence around the reserve.

Radebe said Ezemvelo and the conservation organisations did not have the funds to implement the solutions. Furthermore, land for the proposed elephant “emergency” holding area had not yet been identified.

“Whatever we do, we are going to be damned. We are damned if we do it, and we are going to be damned if we don’t do it. So we still have to keep the balancing act until somebody comes with a possible solution that is going to be accepted by everybody,” Radebe said.

She said Ezemvelo would “keep balancing” the situation but it would use its permit to kill elephants in situations where people’s lives are under threat.

Small businesses would fold, the manufacturing sector would falter and farmers would be forced to cut jobs or close their businesses due to the exorbitant price of electricity, while big multi-national firms get cheap power under preferential pricing agreements.

This was the warning from the South African Federation of Trade Unions (Saftu) during the National Energy Regulator’s (Nersa) public hearings on Eskom’s latest tariff increase application held in Durban on Friday and Saturday.  

Eskom has proposed a 36.15% increase for 2025, 43.55% for 2026, 3.36% for 2027 and 11.07% for 2028.

The utility has raised electricity prices by more than 400% over the past 16 years and households are buckling under the burden, Saftu representative Pinky Cele told Nersa, urging the regulator to reject the application.

“This proposed increase will imperil the already complicated lives of the working class,” Cele said.

The cost of living for working-class communities is already prohibitively high because of climbing fuel, food and transport costs, she said.

“The rising fuel prices have led to a dramatic increase in commuter transport costs, which constantly filter into the prices of other consumables indispensable to the survival of the working class,” Cele said.

The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group’s household affordability index indicates that sustained high inflation rates in the past few years have led to the soaring cost of household food and hygiene baskets.

“Year-on-year, the household food basket has increased by 6.2%, taking the total cost of household groceries to R5 277 30. This is in a country in which 30 million people live below the upper-bound poverty line of R1 634. 

“Unemployment is 12.3 million people, with over 29 million working-class people reliant on social grants,” Cele said.

“The increased cost of living across all areas shows that an electricity tariff will worsen the burden and cause a cost-of-living crisis.”

The working and middle classes are finding it increasingly difficult to meet their debt obligations, she added.

DebtBusters’s Debt Index for the fourth quarter of 2024 revealed that consumers applying for debt counselling allocate 66% of their take-home pay to servicing debt — the highest debt-to-service ratio since 2017. South Africans earning R35 000 monthly spend 72% of their take-home pay on debt servicing costs.

Cele said the proposed tariff increases should be viewed in the context of long-term trends in electricity prices. Eskom’s astronomical increases far outpaced cumulative inflation for the period 2007 to 2003, making it increasingly difficult for households and businesses to survive.

Working-class households, mainly in townships, paid R0.37 per kilowatt-hour in 2007 and by 2023-24 were paying R1.97/kWh.

“This represented a nominal increase of 432% in electricity. The 36.15% increase for 2024-25, if accepted by Nersa, will mean electricity prices will increase to more than 442% nominally between 2007 and 2024,” Cele said.

“If adjusted for inflation, the working-class members will pay between 316 and 345% more than in 2007.”

She said the tariff for households and businesses that rely on municipal electricity would increase by 44% due to levies and surcharges.

The cumulative increases over the next few years would mean a household with an average consumption of 900kWh could pay an additional R1 600 monthly.

“Households on a minimum wage will see 30% of their monthly earnings going to the cost of electricity. In comparison, households earning between R12 000 and R20 000 will now have to allocate 8 to 12% of their income to the cost of electricity.

“These ever-rising energy costs, compounded by the prices of food, fuel and transportation, have compelled working-class families to reduce the amount of money spent on food. 

“The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group has indicated that working-class families underspend on food by 52.2%. This is in a country with a children’s malnutrition rate of 21%.”

Current average household expenditure on electricity amounts to R2 948.98, Cele said.

“If Eskom’s proposed tariff hike is granted, the average household expenditure will skyrocket to R4 015.04 by 2025. 

“When coupled with water charges, which have increased by a staggering 2 100% since 1996, it becomes clear that it will be impossible for the working class to survive,” she said, adding that small businesses and farms had also felt “the wrath of Eskom’s relentless tariff hikes”.

A report by the Small Enterprise Development Agency (Seda) indicates that about 40% of small and medium enterprises cite electricity as one of their highest operational costs.

“Seda’s report showed a direct correlation between small and medium business closures and electricity tariff hikes between 2010 and 2023. 

“The manufacturing sector has, since 2010, shed about 150 000 jobs, with 60% of the manufacturers citing electricity costs as one operational cost that renders them unsustainable, leading to downsizing or outright closure,” Cele said.

AgriSA says 55% of local farmers have seen their profits decline due to electricity costs. This leads to closures, food insecurity and the monopolisation of food production which has been highlighted by The Competition Commission.

Cele said high energy-consuming industries — known as the Energy intensive User’s Group (EIUG) — consume a significant amount of power without paying the “commensurate prices”.

“There are 27 EIUGs in South Africa, whose combined consumption of Eskom’s electricity is 42%. These companies pay a fraction of what an ordinary consumer pays per kilowatt-hour of electricity. By some estimates, EIUGs pay one-eighth of what an ordinary consumer pays for a unit of electricity,” she said. 

The companies, she argued, were given favourable tariffs to stimulate investment but these account for just 4% of jobs and some repatriate their profits abroad.

“The working class is not only shouldering a more significant proportion of Eskom’s revenue per capita but is also effectively subsidising the EIUG,” said Cele.

Ethekwini Ratepayers Protest Movement chairperson Asad Gaffar highlighted that municipal electricity tariffs have risen by 151% between 2014 and 2024. In the last five years, they were up 70%.

He noted that, according to the South African Reward Association, salaries will only increase by 6% in the 2024-25 financial year, while the government has offered public servants 4.7%.

Gaffar said corruption at Eskom has a direct impact on the cost of electricity, especially for the poor.

“We, as consumers, we are picking up the tab for poor governance. We talk about the audit outcome of Eskom in the current audit year — it has remained stagnant with the qualification on the completeness and accuracy of the irregular expenditure disclosure. This follows five financial years of a stagnant position of qualified audit opinion with findings,” Gaffar said.

He added that poor governance had also allowed municipal debt to Eskom to balloon to more than R73 billion.

“We strongly object to Eskom’s proposed 2026 tariff increase,” he said.

Democratic Alliance mayor of Howick Christopher Pappas said the implications of such a significant hike were of “great concern”.

“Our municipality, like many others across the country, is already facing considerable economic challenges. Unemployment remains high and the cost of living continues to rise. 

“An increase of this magnitude in electricity tariffs will place an untenable financial burden on our residents, many of whom are already struggling to manage their household expenses.”

The repercussions of the proposed increase were far-reaching and would lead to the exacerbation of poverty and inequality; place strain on small businesses, which are the cornerstone and job creators of the local economy; put pressure on the municipality’s ability to maintain services and force paying households and businesses to switch to renewable energy, he said.

“This will have a further negative effect on municipalities since it is the paying customers that have the means to opt out of Eskom supply. This runs counter to our national objectives of rebuilding municipalities and making them financially viable,” Pappas said.

Speaking at the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s (Nersa) public hearings on Friday, trade unions, residents and ratepayers, including those living in hostels, informal settlements and middle-income suburbs, were united in their anger and rejection of Eskom’s application.

The power utility wants price increases amounting to R445 billion for 2025-26, R495 billion for 2026-27 and R537 billion for 2027-28, translating to electricity price hikes of 36.1% in 2025, 11.8% in 2026 and 9.1% in 2027.

South Durban Community Alliance (SDCA) representative Tristen Meek said Eskom is struggling to meet demand and thousands of households do not have electricity.

“Communities are told to pay electricity bills for almost R15 000, yet they use less power than elites living in so-called better parts of the province. Despite tariff hikes, Eskom still cannot improve operations, leading to financial strain on consumers,” Meek said.

“They need to completely divest from fossil fuels as a source of energy, and for those who don’t understand, that means no gas, no green hydrogen, no coal, no oil and no clean coal. Invest in renewables, invest in solar and wind farms for the people.”

SDCA representative Bongani Mthembu said residents were fed up with corruption and mismanagement at Eskom and spiraling tariffs.

“Nersa, we are tired. We are exhausted from coming here to say one and the same thing, and every time Eskom is done stealing all the money, they come and say our poor people, the black poor people, must cover it,” Mthembu said.

He said it seemed the hearings were just a tick-box exercise as he believed Nersa had already decided on granting the tariff hikes.

Another SDCA representative, Mvuso Ntombela, weighed in: “Many grandmothers will only find out about huge tariff increases when they go to buy electricity.”

Jacobs Hostel representative Sthembiso Mgenge said Eskom and Nersa were not aware of the “suffering” of residents.

“We face many unemployed people who are struggling to find jobs and to increase electricity prices will add to their financial woes. The higher price will lead to a higher cost of living, not only for them, but also for small businesses,” Mgenge said, urging Eskom to focus on improving infrastructure, reducing energy losses and theft of electricity, and promoting renewable energy.

“It is unfair to punish honest citizens with the highest prices,” he said.

Ward 17 committee member Nilesh Maharaj described the proposed price hikes as “unbelievable, ludicrous, inconsiderate, arrogant and biasedly calculated”.

“We have unemployed individuals who have not received salary increases for many years and those who have were fortunate to get 2-6% … most people have to pinch from their food budget … to pay for electricity,” he said.

“Eskom is trying to milk a cow that no longer has the ability to produce milk, the wells are dry, the common people are of the hope that Eskom will no longer be rewarded for mediocrity.”

groundWork researcher David Hallowes said people could not afford the hikes which would push prices in eThekwini to between R4.18 and R4.80 per kilowatt hour.

“Eskom can’t produce electricity at a price people can afford. Hence, cost-reflective pricing is not viable,” he said.

He said proposed new pricing policies centred on “cost to serve” were calculated to advantage big industrial users, who already pay less for electricity in terms of secret deals with Eskom, and to disadvantage people who conserve energy and install renewable energy sources. 

The tariff would partially be used to subsidise large industrial users, pay for the rising coal prices and subsidise municipal debt, Hallowes added.

eThekwini Ratepayers and Residents Association chairperson Ish Praladh said people were “hanging themselves and jumping into rivers”, due to high electricity prices.

“We have been through heavy times with the floods and looting … that increase is going to cause a major issue, especially with our low-income families,” he said.

Verulam resident Sakhumuzi Ntombela  pleaded with Nersa chairperson Nomfundo Maseti to stand up for citizens.

“I am asking you today … to go and stand against them [Eskom] and tell them, slowly the community is losing its patience … Every person has a beast who lives inside them and hunger makes them angry,” he said.

“There is a family that lost a child because of load-shedding. The child had asthma and could not use the nebulizer because there was no electricity. Now, who is responsible for the death of that child? 

“Are you able to enter someone’s house and dish up from a pot that is empty? How are you allowing Eskom to have an increase when we don’t have this money?”

Maseti said the regulator would follow the correct legal process when deciding on the tariff adjustment and urged people to keep submitting their comments.

“This message that you keep repeating and saying, that we came here already with a decision we have taken, I want to assure you there is no decision. Nersa is going to do the work it should do and there is evidence that the decisions we end up reaching are not easy,” she said.

Tourism authorities, business leaders and municipalities, including the City of Cape Town, Ugu district municipality and eThekwini said this week that beaches and lagoons are ready to welcome visitors as they are clean and mostly E.Coli free, while the water shortages that have plagued the South Coast in recent months appear to have been resolved.

Both the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal are expecting tourism business to exceed pre-Covid-19 levels in some regions.

Federated Hospitality Association of South Africa (Fedhasa) East Coast chairperson Brett Tungay said the industry anticipated overall occupancy of around 85% across the province for the festive season. Accommodation in the Drakensburg is already 75% to 80% booked, while the Midlands, North Coast and Durban are also “looking good” in terms of bookings, he said.

“There is no consistency around the province in terms of booking recoveries — the high end is still continuing very well but the mid-range priced accommodation is where a lot of struggle has been,” Tungay added.

He said there had also been an increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting the province and it needed to change its marketing approach.

“We have gone from 20 years ago being a primary destination like Cape Town and the Kruger National Park to becoming an ‘add-on’ for foreign markets. We need to become a primary tourist destination again,” he said.

“We need to leverage our world heritage sites and the fact that no other destination can offer top game reserves, amazing beaches, the midlands, the battlefields, Zulu, Indian and English settler culture.”

Tungay said eThekwini had addressed its E.Coli beach water crisis by fixing its wastewater treatment works but it remained at the mercy of upstream municipalities.

According to the latest beach water test results, released by the metro this week, 21 beaches are open for swimming while two remain closed due to dangerously high levels of E.Coli.

“Ostensibly, most of the wastewater treatment works are back online. The last time we spoke to them they [the metro] were quite chuffed with the progress but it doesn’t help if Pietermaritzburg releases waste into the Duzi, even when the water treatment works are working in Durban. 

“We get a lot of rain in summer and, even if they are working, there could be E.Coli because the Umgeni River is a drainage basin for a large portion of KZN,” Tungay said.

“It’s going to be totally weather dependent. If we have a dry summer, it will be good, if a wet summer, it’s going to be dreadful. 

“This is the bugbear in the room everybody is trying to avoid. It’s easy to blame eThekwini Metro but they are the recipients of all the waste coming down from Pietermaritzburg.”

Fedhasa has been working closely with the departments of co-operative governance and traditional affairs (Cogta) and public works and infrastructure to resolve the water quality and supply problems that have plagued the south coast where, in recent years, there had been outages of more than five days, Tungay said, adding: “It seems to be slowly showing dividends.”

Southern Explorer Association chairperson Mandy Massey agreed.

“Our tap water is of drinking water standard, all beaches are clean, the lagoons are clean and we are waiting for a bumper season. Cogta has been instrumental in providing funds to the municipality to fix the water problems and they are on top of it and working hard,” she said.

Community project Tidy Towns Shelly to Margate has been working with Ugu municipality to confront its challenges, and tourists were returning to the coastline, said representative Stephen Herbst, who has previously highlighted the water crisis.

“In the last 15 years, we have not seen a pre-season turnout by people down here like we are at the moment. It’s absolutely incredible. 

Our shopping malls have started with festive movement, our beaches are spotless and all open for swimming. Our tidal pools look amazing and the general feel is one of we are ready for the festive period …the south coast is shining,” Herbst said.

In recent cases, where there have been water outages, the municipality has responded swiftly to fix the problem. Herbst alerted the Mail & Guardian to three sewage spills that had been reported in the region but it was unclear as of this week whether this would affect local beaches.

Ugu spokesperson France Zama said additional emphasis had been placed on ensuring the security of water supply during the holidays.

“This includes making available adequate human resources, water tankers, service delivery vehicles and disaster management services to swiftly respond to any emergencies that may arise during this period,” Zama said, adding that extensive planned maintenance work had been conducted on major water supply systems to meet demand.

“Water supply systems are currently in a healthy condition in most areas across the district while we continue working on routine maintenance affecting certain sections of our communities.”

eThekwini mayor Cyril Xaba said Durban was preparing for an influx of visitors with a “significant” economic impact.

“Projections for 2024-25 anticipate a rise in occupancy rates to 75%, over 1.3 million visitors, a direct spend of R2.5 billion and a GDP contribution of R6.3 billion … this growth translates into over 11 000 jobs, reaffirming tourism’s vital role in driving economic recovery and growth,” Xaba said.

The Western Cape is expecting a busy season, Fedhasa Cape chairperson Lee-Anne Singer said.

“We saw an 18% increase in international visitors at Cape Town International Airport in December 2023, with continued growth into 2024. 

“In the last few months, airlines like Virgin, Air France and Lufthansa have all extended their seasonal service into Cape Town and this will be the first season ever to see 88 cruise liners,” Singer said.

She said the industry hoped to achieve occupancy rates of around 75% for the December 2024/January 2025 period.

“We’re expecting 2024 to exceed both 2023 levels and pre-Covid figures,” she said, noting that Wesgro — the tourism, trade and investment promotion agency for Cape Town and the Western Cape — had reported 20 months of continuous year-on-year growth in terms of international passenger traffic.

“The city is looking forward to a bumper cruise season, and Cape Town has been named Africa’s Leading City Destination for 2024 by the World Travel Awards for the fourth year in a row, so it all bodes well,” she said.

Singer said the association was pleased with the City of Cape Town’s latest water quality reports which show that 100% of the 120 water samples collected at its 30 most popular beaches had met recreational use guidelines over the past month.

However, Cape Town mayoral committee member for water and sanitation Zahid Badroodien said a report released on 26 November detailed water quality issues, which remain a challenge.

Key findings were that sewage contamination remains a serious concern both to public health and the environment, particularly in catchments that experience a high frequency of sewage spills, largely due to vandalism and system misuse and run-off from informal settlements.

In many areas solid waste is also dumped illegally into rivers or near rivers and stormwater systems, which affects aquatic ecosystems and causes infrastructure maintenance problems.

“Daily inspections are being conducted at all coastal pump stations to ensure wet wells are thoroughly cleaned and cleared ahead of the festive season. Additionally, standby teams are on hand to respond promptly to any after-hours emergencies,” Badroodien said.

“Sewer lines, especially those near coastal areas, have also been proactively cleaned to prevent blockages and spills, which has seen 111,5km of sewer lines being cleaned already since July 2024. A dedicated spill mitigation team will be on standby to respond quickly in case of emergencies.”

He said water pollution control teams have completed grease-trap inspections at restaurants in the Camps Bay district; Century City; Koeberg Road, Milnerton; Kalk Bay; Muizenberg and in other areas to prevent the sewer system clogging.

“Quite often, foreign objects, such as rags, sanitary pads, plastics and wet wipes, are found to be the cause of recent blockages that have occurred near beaches. The latest example was at Clifton Fourth Beach when rags were removed from the sewer line to unblock it,” he said.

Badroodien said residents and restaurateurs have a major part to play in helping to prevent sewer overflows onto beaches.